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Prediction for CME (2024-05-17T04:28:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-05-17T04:28Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30989/-1
CME Note: Narrow, faint CME visible to the east in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Potentially associated with AR 3679. A filament eruption is visible in this area around 2024-05-17T03:00Z in SDO AIA 304 which appears to deflect to the north in EUV imagery. Dimming and post eruptive arcades are visible in SDO AIA 193. There are no clear CME arrival signatures in the solar wind, although there is a very brief possible flux rope signature starting around 2024-05-20T06Z with separation of magnetic field components, drop in density and temperature and mild increase of magnetic field to 8nT.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-05-20T17:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/30988/1
Model Inputs:
2024-05-17T04:28:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-20.0, Lat.=-1.0, Speed=854.0, HalfAngle=10.0, Time21.5=2024-05-17T07:35Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-05-20T17:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=3

Other Location(s) Impact:

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240517_073500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240517_073500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240517_073500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240517_073500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240517_073500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240517_073500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240517_073500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240517_073500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240517_073500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240517_073500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240517_073500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240517_073500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240517_073500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240517_073500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240517_073500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 69.27 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) on 2024-05-17T19:44Z

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